October 9, 2007

NBA predictions

This is how I see the regular season playing out:

WEST

1. Phoenix
2. San Antonio
3. Dallas
4. Houston
5. Denver
6. Golden State
7. Utah
8. Lakers

9. New Orleans
10. Memphis
11. Clippers
12. Portland
13. Seattle
14. Sacramento
15. Minnesota


EAST

1. Chicago
2. Cleveland
3. Boston
4. Detroit
5. Toronto
6. New Jersey
7. Milwaukee
8. Orlando

9. Miami
10. Washington
11. Charlotte
12. New York
13. Atlanta
14. Philadelphia
15. Indiana

Pacific in the West

1. Golden State Warriors – I’m not worried about the loss of J-Rich. Don Nelson is alpha and omega of this team as he plugs in no name players on a regular basis and they seem to perform well. Just look at the roster and tell me there’s another coach on earth who can win with them:

1 – Baron Davis, Troy Hudson
2 – Monta Ellis, Marco Belinelli, Kelenna Azubuike
3 – Stephen Jackson, Matt Barnes, Mickael Pietrus
4 – Al Harrington, Austin Croshere, Brandan Wright,
5 – Andris Biedrins

They were such fun to watch last year. I think they can keep it up.

2. Sacramento Kings - what a pathetic team. They have exactly one bright spot and for all of you who don't know, his name is Kevin Martin. Bibby hates it here, Artest is a looney, Miller played like a corpse last season and Abdur-Rahim is perpetually injured. On top of that the Kings have a bunch of overpaid and overrated roleplayers (Kenny Thomas, Mikki Moore, John Salmons).
When the season rolls along and they trott out these five:

PG - Bibby
SG - Kev-Mart,
SF - Artest
PF - Rahim
C - Miller

... will you be watching then?

3. LA Lakers - Forget about the drama from La-La land. There are more important issues here such as how effective will Odom be with his surgically repaired shoulder and what do they do with the 3-headed center (Kwame, Bynum, Mihm)? This is gonna end badly.

PG - Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic, Javaris Crittenton
SG - Kobe Bryant, Maurice Evans,
SF - Luke Walton, Vladimir Radmanovic
PF - Lamar Odom, Ronny Turiaf, Brian Cook
C - Andrew Bynum, Chris Mihm, Kwame Brown

Kobe is surrounded by a bunch of role players and he knows it. This is the season when he takes the matters into his own hands. I predict a ridiculous scoring spree ... that's the only thing that can make the Lakers relevant again.

4. LA Clippers - With Elton Brand hurt the Clips frontcourt looks very thin. Good thing they have 5 small forwards – Patterson, Ross, Thomas, Maggette, Al Thornton - some of which will be sliding to shooting guard and power forward to fill in for injured players.

This is what they look like:

1 – Sam Cassell, Brevin Knight, Shaun Livingston
2 – Cuttino Mobley, Quinton Ross
3 - Corey Maggette, Ruben Patterson, Al Thornton
4 – Tim Thomas, Josh Powell, EB
5 - Chris Kaman, Aaron Williams

Let's dissect them even further.

Cassell is old, injury prone and will be pushing for a buyout in no time (Cleveland sounds about right), Livingston is a bust in addition to being injured all the time, Knight is a decent pass-first PG and will be starting for them in no time (regardless of Dunleavy's conditioning comments), Mobley is ineffective (I can't remember his last good game ... must've been for the Houston Rockets), Ross is a good defensive player but not much more than that, Mags is probably the only bright spot (other than Brand when healthy) and yet they tride to trade him 7 times over the past two years (let's see how that affects his attitude and confidence), Patterson had a great season with the Bucks although he could get distracted (LA is perfect for a registered sex offender), Thornton is a rook I doubt he will have much of an impact this year, Tim Thomas is a fraud (as evidenced by Mike D'Antoni telling him 2 years ago - you play hard for us this year and you'll be able to trick a team into giving you a phat contract. Then you can keep coasting) and any team relying on him is going down and Leatherface errr Chris Kaman at center who plays like a stiff.

On top of everything they traded Jared Jordan, the assists leader for two straight years in the NCAA, to the Knicks. Hey, it's not like they needed a point guard, right? What a stupid move.

This is a wasted season for them anyway – why wouldn’t they use it to develop a pass first point guard? It’s not like there are many of them out there anyway. But whaddaIknow. Maybe today’s NBA teams prefer the Stephon Marburys of the world.

5. Phoenix Suns - Amare Stoudemire is going to sink the Suns and they will regret passing on KG. The reasoning behind the Suns refusal to trade Amare for KG was that Amare is a younger player on the rise while KG was on the decline and didn't have many years left. Also Amare will still be the conerstone of the franchise when Nash retires. Well after 3 knee surgeries in 2 years I'd say that the GM screwed up. KG is an unselfish player, a better defender than Amare and way less injury prone. He could've given them 2 trophies in the next 3 years. He was the missing ingredient, the one player they needed to get them over the hump (or the Spurs if you like).

But the GM outsmarted himself as they often seem to do. The Suns will not win the ring with knee-repair Stoudemire as their franchise guy. They still have a shot with Nash in the fold but I doubt it.

Anyways, the Suns are very thin. One key inury and they're done. They essentially have 8 players in the rotation:

PG – Steve Nash, Barbosa
SG – Raja Bell
SF – Shawn Marion, Grant Hill
PF – Boris Diaw,
C – Amare Stoudemire, Brian Skinner

They also have a situation with Marion who feels unappreciated and wants a contract extension.
GM Steve Kerr downplayed the situation. Kerr recalled a similar time when he was a teammate of Scottie Pippen in Chicago.
"The last year we won a championship, at the beginning of training camp, we had a similar issue, a contract dispute," Kerr said. "It didn't affect the players because we enjoyed playing together. It's business. Players put that aside. That's what we did in Chicago and if I remember correctly we won a championship that year."

This is the thing Steve - Marion doesn't like playing here. He wants to go to a bad team and post 35 points and 10 rebounds a night and be their franchise guy (kinda like Joe Johnson in Atlanta). This time around it's not about business.

October 7, 2007

Hanging in the Northwest

1. Portland Trail Blazers – Lots of young talent, great coach, excited fans, wealthy owner. You know by now that I love listing a team’s roster by position so bear with me on this one:

1 – Steve Blake, Jarrett Jack, Sergio Rodriguez
2 – Brandon Roy, Martell Webster,
3 – James Jones, Travis Outlaw
4 – LaMarcus Aldridge, Channing Frye
5 – Joel Przybilla, Raef LaFrentz, Greg Oden

Even if Oden was healthy they wouldn’t have been making the playoffs in his first year but without him they’re definitely going to the lottery. Again. And they should be targeting a capable SF where they’re not very strong … cuz Darius Miles isn’t walking throught that door … at least not any time soon.

2. Seattle Supersonics - I hope they stay in Seattle. Oklahoma City Sonics just doesn't sound right. Lots of reasons to be excited for this young team. However they will need a few more trips to the lottery before they even start thinking about the playoffs. Let's take a closer look:

PG - Luke Ridnour, Earl Watson, Delonte West
SG - Kevin Durant, Damien Wilkins
SF - Wally Szczerbiak, Jeff Green, Mickael Gelabale
PF - Chris Wilcox, Kurt Thomas, Nick Collison,
C - Robert Swift, Johan Petro

The Sonics will be strong on the wings but every other position is problematic. They got 3 average point guards (none of which is suited to be a starter), weak and inexperienced players at center and average power forwards (unless Wilcox surprises everybody and finally becomes a consistent player).

3. Minnesota Timberwolves - Sota has some decent players with upside (Gerald Green, Ryan Gomes, Craig Smith and Rashad McCants) and a young core to build around (Al Jefferson, Randy Foye and Corey Brewer), some expiring contracts (Theo Ratliff, Juwan Howard, Ricky Davis, the departed Eddie Griffin (contract comes off the cap after the season) and Sebastian Telfair) and a few deadweight contracts (Mark Blount, Marko Jaric, Troy Hudson, Greg Buckner). If they let the contracts expire they'll have significant cap room next season.

So, what I think they should do is play the young guys as much as possible just to see what they got, maybe package some of the expiring contracts for a proven player (hopefully a shooting guard or a center) if one becomes available or just let those contracts expire and keep building through the draft (which is the best way anyway, especially when you take into account that they'll be picking at the top of the draft for a few more years).

4. Utah Jazz - Trade AK for a shooting guard! Just do it! Otherwise prepare for a dissapointing season.

1 – Deron Williams, Jason Hart,
2 – Gordan Giricek, Ronnie Brewer, Morris Almond
3 – AK , Matt Harpring,
4 – Carlos Boozer, Paul Millsap,
5 – Mehmet Okur, Jarron Collins

So, imagine if they traded for a good shooter (someone like say Corey Maggette (and yes I realize their salaries don't match I'm just trying to make a point)). That'd give 'em a starting lineup of D-Will, Mags, Harpring, Boozer and Okur (with Millsap being a valuable 6th man). Not bad huh? I'm sure AK for a shooting guard to be named later is doable.

5. Denver Nuggets - You can just feel the injuries mounting as Denver's name rolls off your tongue. K-Mart had micro fracture surgery on both knees! And Nene is injured all the time. They're over the cap so they can't add significant players. This spells trouble.

1 – AI, Chucky Atkins,
2 – JR Smith
3 – Carmelo Anthony, Linas Kleiza
4 – Nene, K-Mart, Eduardo Najera,
5 – Marcus Camby, Steven Hunter

Do they look like a contender to you? No, I didn't think so.

Western Conference preview

We're starting the preview with the Southwest:

1. San Antonio Spurs- I hate writing about these guys. I mean, what’s to say? They brought back everybody from last year and added Ime Udoka to supplant Bruce Bowen. Are Finley and Horry too old to play another season at a high level? I say no. They can give them another good year. I’m not saying they’ll necessarily win it all again this season cuz they must be tired as hell (especially Parker who played in the Euro tournament) … but they might. They're still the team to beat.

2. Dallas Mavericks – This is the season they unravel. I can just feel it. And it’ll all be for psych reasons. I just don’t see them coming back from all the mental collapses of the past two years.

3. Houston Rockets – Everyone and their brother is expecting them to rise from the West and go to the Conference Finals. Not so fast, guys.
Scola’s and Yao’s game don’t mesh (they both play inside which also doesn’t mesh with Adelman’s uptempo offense), T-Mac has a bad back (no chance of that going away) and Yao’s injury prone (he’s been out with _______ (fill in the body part) for all of his 5 seasons in the NBA).
Then there’s the PG battle with Alston’s average play and recent legal troubles and Steve Francis’ and Mike James’ ball-hogging style of play (both of them being shoot first PGs which also doesn’t mesh with the other players). There’s just too many things that don’t work although I believe Adelman will bring more excitement to their style and possibly a trip all the way to the second round of the play-offs. Hey, they haven't been there recently. Get excited Rockets fans!

4. Memphis Grizzlies – Not a bad team but just an awful place for a franchise. Just like New Orleans and Charlotte. Those teams will never win anything. You can just tell.
Anyways, Gasol and Darko have a chance to be a good frontcourt presence in Iavaroni’s system with Mike Miller and Rudy Gay shooting 3’s and slashing to the basket but they lack depth at Center and PF and have no clear starting PG (Conley and Navarro are rooks, Lowry can’t shoot and Stoudamire looks washed up). Take a closer look:

5 – Pau Gasol, Stromile Swift
4 – Darko Milicic, Brian Cardinal
3 – Rudy Gay, Hakim Warrick
2 – Mike Miller,
1 – Damon Stoudamire, Mike Conley, Navarro, Kyle Lowry

No playoffs for you this season.

New Orleans Hornets – Just not good enough to contend in the West. They’d smash everyone’s brains out in the East though. Just look at ‘em:

1 – Chris Paul, Bobby Jackson,
2 – Mo Pete, Jannero Pargo
3 – Peja Stojakovic, Rasual Butler, Julian Wright
4 – David West, Melvin Ely, Cedric Simmons
5 – Tyson Chandler, Hilton Armstrong

They have one of the best point guards in the league, 2 excellent shooters (Mo Pete and Peja (if he’s healthy enough to play)), a very good frontcourt combo (West and Chandler) and a decent bench. Byron Scott can flat out coach and inspite of all the injuries they sustained last season had them in contention for the 8th playoff spot in the tough Western conference.

It’ll kill ‘em to go back to New Orleans though … and play without the noise of Oklahoma City fans behind them. As I said above this isn’t a good place for a franchise … not enough fan support.

October 2, 2007

Atlantic division

You might have noticed that I don’t include all players when dissecting a specific team. Left out are the towel-wavers (for obvious reasons) and some of the rookies (cuz you can’t really know their impact until you’ve seen them play an actual NBA game).

Now that we have this clear, we can move on with the new and improved Atlantic division.

Boston Celtics –Fans in Boston are brimming with optimism because management aborted the rebuilding program (in year 4 no less) and decided to go with Garnett, Pierce, Allen, Rondo and Posey. Not bad but … what most of them conveniently forget is that Doc Rivers is still coaching this team. So unless KG and co. can find a way to circumvent The Coach, the Celts will be self-destructing in the postseason. You can count on it.

This team’s got some very good players but they need time to gel, so even with a great coach they wouldn’t be bringing home any trophies. Not in year one at least.

Of course there’s lots of room for optimism for next year - there’s a decent chance they realize Doc can’t coach and replace him with a good one (Larry Brown, anyone? … going once, going twice … sold to the gentlemen in green!), fill out some holes in their roster (which they invariably have at PG and at back-up spots whether they choose to admit it or not), get some more seasoning for the youngsters, let everyone gel some more and they’ll be ready to take on the world.

Now I’m not saying they won’t do some damage in the East. Not at all.

Let’s break down their roster, European style (and just by way of explanation: 1 – PG, 2 – SG, 3 – SF, 4 – PF, 5 – C; first guy on the list in each position is the projected starter and guys listed behind them - projected backups)

1 - Rajon Rondo, Gabe Pruitt,
2 – Ray Allen, Eddie House, Tony Allen
3 – Paul Pierce, James Posey,
4 – KG, Brian Scalabrine, Glen Davis, Leon Powe
5 – Kendrick Perkins, Scot Pollard

Some obvious problems with the roster –
1) Rondo needs to improve his shot and needs time to grow as a playmaker,
2) they don’t really have back-ups at the PG position although House and Tony Allen can play some (Pruitt is a rook)
3) if KG goes down Brian Scalabrine, Glen Davis (rook with conditioning issues) or Leon Powe (often injured) get to supplant him in the starting lineup. Oh joy. At least Scalabrine has the same brain type as MJ
4) NBA teams keep signing Scot Pollard even though he’s always injured and never seems to play even when he’s healthy.

And even with all that Boston will be a major factor in the East if the big three can stay healthy. Just don’t expect any titles this season.

New York Knicks – you didn’t expect these guys to be an even bigger mess than last season did you? Well, they are. Do I even need to mention the sexual harassment trial? No, I didn’t think so. But let’s focus on basketball issues:

Isiah usually drafts well but has a penchant for acquiring free agents whose games don’t mesh with the players on the roster (which often leads to costly buyouts) – like Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry (they are basically the same player – except only one’s got a heart problem) and Q-Rich and Jamal Crawford (except only one’s got a bad back).

Marbury hasn’t played well the past 2 years and seems to have lost his mind in the off-season (or in a more optimistic view he might have just been hopped up on goof-balls during the infamous interview).

Malik Rose is an undersized PF who plays with a lot of heart; which, on a team with no heart, would seem to be a good thing. But Zeke will have none of that. He never plays him.

Jerome James – do I really need to say anything?

Jared Jeffries (he earns about $ 6 mill per season … only in New York)

Fred Jones is no more than an average SG, Renaldo Balkman no more than a decent SF and Nate Robinson just a smaller version of Marbury … which would make David Lee the only bright spot on this team.

Uh, and did I mention Isiah is coaching them?

New Jersey Nets – Not a bad team with the addition of Jamaal Magloire, Nenad Krstic coming back from an ACL tear and their version of the big three coming back.

Let’s take a closer look:

1 – Jason Kidd, Marcus Williams,
2 – Vince Carter, Antoine Wright
3 – Richard Jefferson, Bostjan Nachbar
4 – Nenad Krstic, Malik Allen, Sean Williams
5 – Jamaal Magloire, Jason Collins

As long as Kidd is running the point the Nets should be in contention and if Magloire brings it this season (which I suspect he will given Kidd’s leadership and penchant for making big men look better than they actually are) they have a chance.

Philadelphia 76ers – They added more prospects and their big off-season signings were Reggie Evans and Calvin Booth. Would you believe that?

They haven’t got much besides the two Andres (Iguodala and Miller) and a bench of role players. Get it? Bench?

They’re not winning any time soon. This team is a perfect example of why the NBA should be scaled down to 25 teams, tops. There’s just not enough talent to go around for 30.

Toronto Raptors – I’m not sure if they’ll be able to build on last season’s success. The coach sucks, they’re not sneaking up on anyone like they did last year, the roster hasn’t really improved, Jason Kapono is overrated and their division just got a lot more competitive.

Let’s break it down:

1 – TJ Ford, Jose Calderon
2 – Anthony Parker, Juan Dixon
3 – Jorge Garbajosa, Jason Kapono, Carlos Delfino
4 – Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani
5 – Radoslav Nesterovic, Maceo Baston

Now if they’re smart they’ll play Bosh at Center and Bargnani at Power Forward (doable cuz they play up-tempo) which would eliminate the Rasho factor and give them a starting five of Bosh, Bargnani, Garbajosa (a great glue guy), Parker (who is so underrated he doesn’t even get recognized in Toronto) and Ford (or better yet - Calderon). Now that’s not a bad starting five, right?

Also, not that I’m questioning the two time GM MVP Brian Colangelo, but he seems to be the only one who thinks TJ Ford is a better fit for this offense than Jose Calderon and yet anyone who watched the Raptors last season would beg to differ. I know I do.

So, just to summarize: they have playmakers at PG, good shooters at SG and SF positions, a great glue guy, they play defense and have Chris Bosh. Damn. I think I just talked myself into liking this team.